Streams don't run from dry soils

Konza streamflow and precipitation as a function of soil moisture at 25 cm

The fraction of precipitation retained by soil is a major source of variation in soil water availability to plants. For a given site, much of the variation that we see in this is associated with the pattern of precipitation, external disturbances on vegetation not withstanding. Precipitation pattern is hard to quantify in an ecologically meaningful way, though. A large, intense rainfall event might be lost to the stream if soils are saturated, but if soils are dry might be retained completely. Yet, heavy rain on dry soils might also be associated with heavy runoff if the rain falls faster than the soil can absorb it. You can occasionally see it on your front lawn, but flow paths are pretty short there compared to an intact grassland. Then again, rivers do flood in deserts.

There has been a lot of uncertainty at Konza on this, so I dug into the data to test it. I used the biweekly soil moisture data and matched it up with precipitation and streamflow during April-July (day 105-214 from our critical precipitation periods). 27 years of data here.

First cut analysis shows high precipitation falling a range of soils, but high flows in the major stream draining Konza only when soils are wet. Really no cases of high flows off dry soils.

The data aren't perfect. Soil moisture is only taken biweekly, and I used the interpolated soil moisture for each day rather than actual or the previous soil moisture. We really need daily data on this and that doesn't exist. 

Upshot? Plants get access to all the precipitation that falls when soils are dry, but can lose a significant amount when soils are wet. Losing water from wet soils might not impact plants immediately, but likely does later as the soils dry out.

Turns out we have pretty good evidence of this. More on that later.